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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 688.64 (-23.0%) | 974.67 (+9.0%) | 1,418.07 (+58.5%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 593.69 (-33.6%) | 894.55 (+0.0%) | 1,347.88 (+50.7%) |
| Analysts’ targets | 730 (-18.4%) | 1,031.14 (+15.3%) | 1,250 (+39.7%) |
History since 1999; now 894.55. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: below SMA200 · SMA50 < SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 57.1% | 56.1% | 1.2% | 119 | 48%–66% | as usual |
| 3 months | 63.0% | 59.4% | 4.0% | 46 | 49%–75% | as usual |
| 1 year | 64.7% | 73.1% | 19.5% | 17 | 41%–83% | weak signal (few cases) |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 87 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.247 vs 0.239 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.