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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 256.96 (-7.6%) | 346.18 (+24.4%) | 472.22 (+69.7%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 181.79 (-34.7%) | 278.22 (+0.0%) | 425.8 (+53.0%) |
| Analysts’ targets | 340 (+22.2%) | 405.31 (+45.7%) | 460 (+65.3%) |
History since 2004; now 278.22. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: below SMA200 · SMA50 < SMA200 · RSI oversold
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 75.0% | 59.0% | 4.5% | 12 | 47%–91% | weak signal (few cases) |
| 3 months | 66.7% | 62.4% | 10.1% | 9 | 35%–88% | weak signal (few cases) |
| 1 year | 60.0% | 76.2% | 29.3% | 5 | 23%–88% | weak signal (few cases) |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 67 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.239 vs 0.229 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.