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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 9.05 (-24.9%) | 12.87 (+6.9%) | 19.9 (+65.3%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 6.7 (-44.3%) | 12.04 (+0.0%) | 21.62 (+79.6%) |
History since 2010; now 12.04. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: below SMA200 · SMA50 > SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 50.0% | 53.6% | 0.6% | 36 | 34%–66% | as usual |
| 3 months | 47.6% | 53.1% | 5.6% | 21 | 28%–68% | as usual |
| 1 year | 60.0% | 68.8% | 8.6% | 10 | 31%–83% | weak signal (few cases) |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 46 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.260 vs 0.253 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.