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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 20.12 (-17.9%) | 24.87 (+1.5%) | 29.96 (+22.3%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 13.65 (-44.3%) | 24.5 (+0.0%) | 43.97 (+79.5%) |
History since 2010; now 24.5. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: below SMA200 · SMA50 < SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 59.5% | 57.8% | 0.5% | 74 | 48%–70% | as usual |
| 3 months | 62.1% | 56.3% | 1.8% | 29 | 44%–77% | as usual |
| 1 year | 75.0% | 68.8% | 8.2% | 12 | 47%–91% | weak signal (few cases) |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 46 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.241 vs 0.251 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state adds a little knowledge.