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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 391.84 (-17.8%) | 570.51 (+19.7%) | 734.38 (+54.0%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 208.36 (-56.3%) | 476.76 (+0.0%) | 1,090.92 (+128.8%) |
History since 2010; now 476.76. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: above SMA200 · SMA50 < SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 44.4% | 54.9% | 0.0% | 9 | 19%–73% | weak signal (few cases) |
| 3 months | 85.7% | 63.3% | 13.5% | 7 | 49%–97% | weak signal (few cases) |
| 1 year | 100.0% | 66.7% | 26.3% | 6 | 61%–100% | weak signal (few cases) |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 39 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.279 vs 0.245 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.