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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 30.43 (-20.2%) | 41.92 (+9.9%) | 52.04 (+36.4%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 29.93 (-21.6%) | 38.15 (+0.0%) | 48.63 (+27.5%) |
| Analysts’ targets | 38 (-0.4%) | 41.48 (+8.7%) | 47 (+23.2%) |
History since 1998; now 38.15. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: above SMA200 · SMA50 > SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 58.6% | 58.1% | 1.0% | 210 | 52%–65% | as usual |
| 3 months | 61.0% | 59.6% | 3.2% | 77 | 50%–71% | as usual |
| 1 year | 78.3% | 63.0% | 12.1% | 23 | 58%–90% | as usual |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 90 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.252 vs 0.244 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.