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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 41.68 (-15.7%) | 54.16 (+9.5%) | 66.06 (+33.6%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 39.06 (-21.0%) | 49.46 (+0.0%) | 62.63 (+26.6%) |
| Analysts’ targets | 45.66 (-7.7%) | 51.65 (+4.4%) | 60.11 (+21.5%) |
History since 1984; now 49.46. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: below SMA200 · SMA50 < SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 53.9% | 56.7% | 0.9% | 141 | 46%–62% | as usual |
| 3 months | 60.7% | 62.3% | 2.8% | 56 | 48%–72% | as usual |
| 1 year | 70.8% | 73.2% | 8.7% | 24 | 51%–85% | as usual |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 150 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.247 vs 0.235 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.