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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 22.6 (-26.9%) | 31.86 (+3.0%) | 41.55 (+34.3%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 17.02 (-45.0%) | 30.94 (+0.0%) | 56.25 (+81.8%) |
History since 2010; now 30.94. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: above SMA200 · SMA50 > SMA200 · RSI overbought
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 29.3% | 54.3% | -2.7% | 41 | 18%–44% | a real difference |
| 3 months | 47.8% | 50.0% | -1.6% | 23 | 29%–67% | as usual |
| 1 year | 66.7% | 40.0% | 3.2% | 9 | 35%–88% | weak signal (few cases) |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 45 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.281 vs 0.251 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.