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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 47.09 (-22.5%) | 64.73 (+6.5%) | 81.68 (+34.3%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 42.6 (-29.9%) | 60.8 (+0.0%) | 86.77 (+42.7%) |
| Analysts’ targets | 49.3 (-18.9%) | 56.26 (-7.5%) | 61 (+0.3%) |
History since 1995; now 60.8. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: above SMA200 · SMA50 > SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 54.3% | 54.8% | 0.6% | 221 | 48%–61% | as usual |
| 3 months | 55.1% | 55.8% | 2.1% | 78 | 44%–66% | as usual |
| 1 year | 66.7% | 60.0% | 4.9% | 24 | 47%–82% | as usual |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 103 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.257 vs 0.242 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.