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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 329.4 (-22.4%) | 550.94 (+29.8%) | 1,039.84 (+145.1%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 157.5 (-62.9%) | 424.3 (+0.0%) | 1,143.02 (+169.4%) |
| Analysts’ targets | 490 (+15.5%) | 595 (+40.2%) | 735 (+73.2%) |
History since 2016; now 424.3. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: above SMA200 · SMA50 > SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 63.4% | 63.4% | 4.1% | 71 | 52%–74% | as usual |
| 3 months | 72.0% | 64.9% | 14.1% | 25 | 52%–86% | as usual |
| 1 year | 62.5% | 55.6% | 65.6% | 8 | 31%–86% | weak signal (few cases) |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 20 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.240 vs 0.218 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.