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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 537.98 (-20.4%) | 744.36 (+10.2%) | 1,034.67 (+53.2%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 442.67 (-34.5%) | 675.48 (+0.0%) | 1,030.73 (+52.6%) |
| Analysts’ targets | 500 (-26.0%) | 694.01 (+2.7%) | 813.18 (+20.4%) |
History since 1972; now 675.48. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: above SMA200 · SMA50 > SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 55.9% | 54.0% | 0.6% | 392 | 51%–61% | as usual |
| 3 months | 55.3% | 56.5% | 2.1% | 150 | 47%–63% | as usual |
| 1 year | 55.3% | 62.3% | 10.7% | 47 | 41%–69% | as usual |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 197 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.246 vs 0.246 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.