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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 155.39 (-31.8%) | 245.99 (+8.0%) | 342.03 (+50.1%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 182.45 (-19.9%) | 227.84 (+0.0%) | 284.53 (+24.9%) |
| Analysts’ targets | 249.85 (+9.7%) | 249.85 (+9.7%) | 249.85 (+9.7%) |
History since 1996; now 227.84. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: above SMA200 · SMA50 > SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 59.9% | 55.3% | 1.2% | 212 | 53%–66% | as usual |
| 3 months | 65.8% | 59.5% | 3.7% | 76 | 55%–75% | as usual |
| 1 year | 69.6% | 65.5% | 10.2% | 23 | 49%–84% | as usual |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 97 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.263 vs 0.253 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.