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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 38.32 (-31.2%) | 59.77 (+7.4%) | 83.02 (+49.2%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 32.54 (-41.5%) | 55.66 (+0.0%) | 95.22 (+71.1%) |
History since 1996; now 55.66. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: above SMA200 · SMA50 > SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 53.9% | 50.1% | 1.1% | 152 | 46%–62% | as usual |
| 3 months | 60.9% | 58.0% | 2.3% | 64 | 49%–72% | as usual |
| 1 year | 52.2% | 65.5% | 7.4% | 23 | 33%–71% | as usual |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 100 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.260 vs 0.245 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.