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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 4.4 (-23.7%) | 5.92 (+2.6%) | 8.58 (+48.6%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 4.38 (-24.0%) | 5.77 (+0.0%) | 7.59 (+31.6%) |
History since 2008; now 5.77. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: below SMA200 · SMA50 < SMA200 · RSI oversold
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 55.6% | 46.7% | 2.7% | 45 | 41%–69% | as usual |
| 3 months | 58.3% | 52.9% | 2.9% | 24 | 39%–76% | as usual |
| 1 year | 50.0% | 41.2% | 2.0% | 10 | 24%–76% | weak signal (few cases) |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 52 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.266 vs 0.255 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.