Loading…
Loading…
A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 78.85 (-24.6%) | 123.34 (+18.0%) | 241.55 (+131.1%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 66.24 (-36.6%) | 104.51 (+0.0%) | 164.9 (+57.8%) |
| Analysts’ targets | 110 (+5.3%) | 136.16 (+30.3%) | 170 (+62.7%) |
History since 1990; now 104.51. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: above SMA200 · SMA50 > SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 60.4% | 56.0% | 2.9% | 278 | 55%–66% | as usual |
| 3 months | 70.7% | 61.5% | 9.1% | 99 | 61%–79% | as usual |
| 1 year | 73.3% | 68.6% | 38.5% | 30 | 56%–86% | as usual |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 123 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.234 vs 0.235 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.