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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 123.8 (-19.6%) | 168.63 (+9.5%) | 223.95 (+45.4%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 103.9 (-32.5%) | 154.03 (+0.0%) | 228.36 (+48.3%) |
| Analysts’ targets | 126 (-18.2%) | 151.48 (-1.7%) | 189 (+22.7%) |
History since 1981; now 154.03. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: above SMA200 · SMA50 > SMA200 · RSI overbought
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 47.5% | 53.8% | -0.5% | 80 | 37%–58% | as usual |
| 3 months | 52.9% | 59.1% | -0.1% | 51 | 40%–66% | as usual |
| 1 year | 53.8% | 61.4% | 7.8% | 26 | 35%–71% | as usual |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 158 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.250 vs 0.242 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.