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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 2.14 (-31.6%) | 3.1 (-1.0%) | 4.86 (+55.2%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 1.67 (-46.8%) | 3.13 (+0.0%) | 5.88 (+87.8%) |
History since 2008; now 3.13. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: below SMA200 · SMA50 < SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 49.4% | 46.2% | -0.0% | 79 | 39%–60% | as usual |
| 3 months | 51.5% | 44.3% | -0.4% | 33 | 35%–67% | as usual |
| 1 year | 18.2% | 41.2% | -6.2% | 11 | 5%–48% | weak signal (few cases) |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 53 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.290 vs 0.251 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.