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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 301.9 (-17.1%) | 410.01 (+12.6%) | 545.13 (+49.7%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 284.1 (-22.0%) | 364.12 (+0.0%) | 466.67 (+28.2%) |
| Analysts’ targets | 314 (-13.8%) | 373.22 (+2.5%) | 425 (+16.7%) |
History since 1993; now 364.12. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: above SMA200 · SMA50 > SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 59.1% | 55.5% | 1.2% | 264 | 53%–65% | as usual |
| 3 months | 64.2% | 64.9% | 3.5% | 95 | 54%–73% | as usual |
| 1 year | 75.0% | 75.0% | 13.8% | 28 | 57%–87% | as usual |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 114 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.243 vs 0.238 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.