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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 49.84 (-19.0%) | 69.07 (+12.3%) | 89.23 (+45.0%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 44.12 (-28.3%) | 61.52 (+0.0%) | 85.79 (+39.4%) |
| Analysts’ targets | 63 (+2.4%) | 70.37 (+14.4%) | 75 (+21.9%) |
History since 1980; now 61.52. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: above SMA200 · SMA50 < SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 55.4% | 55.6% | 0.4% | 65 | 43%–67% | as usual |
| 3 months | 56.4% | 55.7% | 2.7% | 39 | 41%–71% | as usual |
| 1 year | 62.5% | 73.3% | 13.5% | 24 | 43%–79% | as usual |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 166 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.252 vs 0.245 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.