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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 47.22 (-22.7%) | 64.6 (+5.7%) | 81.6 (+33.6%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 31.22 (-48.9%) | 61.09 (+0.0%) | 119.54 (+95.7%) |
History since 2010; now 61.09. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: above SMA200 · SMA50 < SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 48.3% | 54.8% | 0.4% | 29 | 31%–66% | as usual |
| 3 months | 47.4% | 48.4% | 0.5% | 19 | 27%–68% | weak signal (few cases) |
| 1 year | 55.6% | 53.3% | 1.9% | 9 | 27%–81% | weak signal (few cases) |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 44 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.263 vs 0.261 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.