Loading…
Loading…
A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 27.68 (-29.9%) | 39.94 (+1.1%) | 56.17 (+42.2%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 0 (-100.0%) | 39.5 (+0.0%) | — (-100.0%) |
History since 2009; now 39.5. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: below SMA200 · SMA50 > SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 54.5% | 50.3% | 1.4% | 33 | 38%–70% | as usual |
| 3 months | 59.1% | 52.3% | 3.7% | 22 | 39%–77% | as usual |
| 1 year | 66.7% | 50.0% | 12.7% | 12 | 39%–86% | weak signal (few cases) |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 48 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.257 vs 0.254 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.