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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 55.93 (-29.3%) | 85.59 (+8.1%) | 125.03 (+57.9%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 50.77 (-35.9%) | 79.16 (+0.0%) | 123.44 (+55.9%) |
| Analysts’ targets | 62 (-21.7%) | 78.14 (-1.3%) | 96 (+21.3%) |
History since 1980; now 79.16. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: below SMA200 · SMA50 > SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 45.1% | 52.7% | -0.2% | 71 | 34%–57% | as usual |
| 3 months | 48.9% | 59.0% | 1.3% | 45 | 35%–63% | as usual |
| 1 year | 65.4% | 64.4% | 8.6% | 26 | 46%–81% | as usual |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 165 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.264 vs 0.249 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.