Loading…
Loading…
A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 32.45 (-31.6%) | 51.74 (+9.0%) | 69.78 (+47.0%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 36.29 (-23.5%) | 47.47 (+0.0%) | 62.09 (+30.8%) |
| Analysts’ targets | 44 (-7.3%) | 63.83 (+34.5%) | 88.1 (+85.6%) |
History since 1996; now 47.47. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: below SMA200 · SMA50 > SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 58.3% | 57.1% | 1.3% | 48 | 44%–71% | as usual |
| 3 months | 61.3% | 55.1% | 4.9% | 31 | 44%–76% | as usual |
| 1 year | 53.3% | 58.6% | 7.5% | 15 | 30%–75% | weak signal (few cases) |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 99 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.252 vs 0.248 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.