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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 1,295.57 (-17.7%) | 1,996.55 (+26.9%) | 3,043.89 (+93.4%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 837.01 (-46.8%) | 1,573.51 (+0.0%) | 2,958.07 (+88.0%) |
History since 2013; now 1,573.51. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: below SMA200 · SMA50 > SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 50.0% | 60.1% | -0.1% | 12 | 25%–75% | weak signal (few cases) |
| 3 months | 55.6% | 70.6% | 6.2% | 9 | 27%–81% | weak signal (few cases) |
| 1 year | 62.5% | 75.0% | 34.1% | 8 | 31%–86% | weak signal (few cases) |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 34 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.291 vs 0.239 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.