Loading…
Loading…
A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 1,064.77 (-32.0%) | 1,909.02 (+21.9%) | 3,313.88 (+111.6%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 857.13 (-45.3%) | 1,565.9 (+0.0%) | 2,860.76 (+82.7%) |
| Analysts’ targets | 863.82 (-44.8%) | 2,141.55 (+36.8%) | 2,837.61 (+81.2%) |
History since 1995; now 1,565.9. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: below SMA200 · SMA50 > SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 60.9% | 55.3% | 2.3% | 46 | 46%–74% | as usual |
| 3 months | 59.4% | 64.2% | 4.8% | 32 | 42%–74% | as usual |
| 1 year | 57.9% | 70.0% | 17.8% | 19 | 36%–77% | weak signal (few cases) |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 105 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.250 vs 0.241 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.