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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 67.96 (-14.3%) | 98.47 (+24.2%) | 148.07 (+86.7%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 43.82 (-44.7%) | 79.3 (+0.0%) | 143.5 (+81.0%) |
| Analysts’ targets | 85 (+7.2%) | 106.24 (+34.0%) | 130 (+63.9%) |
History since 1991; now 79.3. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: above SMA200 · SMA50 > SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 59.9% | 62.6% | 1.7% | 302 | 54%–65% | as usual |
| 3 months | 63.3% | 70.6% | 5.4% | 109 | 54%–72% | as usual |
| 1 year | 74.2% | 82.4% | 28.8% | 31 | 57%–86% | as usual |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 118 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.223 vs 0.214 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.