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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 146.75 (-13.1%) | 235.33 (+39.4%) | 357.61 (+111.8%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 83.67 (-50.5%) | 168.86 (+0.0%) | 340.79 (+101.8%) |
| Analysts’ targets | 190 (+12.5%) | 243.59 (+44.3%) | 290 (+71.7%) |
History since 2014; now 168.86. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: above SMA200 · SMA50 > SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 63.3% | 63.3% | 3.3% | 98 | 53%–72% | as usual |
| 3 months | 68.6% | 63.0% | 9.5% | 35 | 52%–81% | as usual |
| 1 year | 81.8% | 81.8% | 44.7% | 11 | 52%–95% | weak signal (few cases) |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 29 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.244 vs 0.217 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.