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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 387.87 (-16.8%) | 531.81 (+14.1%) | 903.62 (+93.9%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 318.7 (-31.6%) | 466.01 (+0.0%) | 681.4 (+46.2%) |
| Analysts’ targets | 225 (-51.7%) | 397.32 (-14.7%) | 500 (+7.3%) |
History since 1983; now 466.01. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: above SMA200 · SMA50 > SMA200 · RSI overbought
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 51.6% | 56.3% | 3.1% | 93 | 42%–62% | as usual |
| 3 months | 63.8% | 61.2% | 8.1% | 58 | 51%–75% | as usual |
| 1 year | 70.4% | 71.4% | 34.0% | 27 | 52%–84% | as usual |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 151 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.245 vs 0.243 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.