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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 251.32 (-50.2%) | 534 (+5.8%) | 1,303.27 (+158.2%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 208.46 (-58.7%) | 504.8 (+0.0%) | 1,222.41 (+142.2%) |
| Analysts’ targets | 365 (-27.7%) | 640.21 (+26.8%) | 1,250 (+147.6%) |
History since 1980; now 504.8. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: above SMA200 · SMA50 > SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 52.5% | 49.5% | 2.8% | 278 | 47%–58% | as usual |
| 3 months | 54.3% | 53.6% | 7.7% | 105 | 45%–63% | as usual |
| 1 year | 52.8% | 51.1% | 26.4% | 36 | 37%–68% | as usual |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 164 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.264 vs 0.256 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.