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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 265.18 (-32.0%) | 450.1 (+15.4%) | 860.04 (+120.5%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 178.58 (-54.2%) | 390.09 (+0.0%) | 852.1 (+118.4%) |
| Analysts’ targets | 358 (-8.2%) | 627.54 (+60.9%) | 900 (+130.7%) |
History since 1980; now 390.09. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: below SMA200 · SMA50 > SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 46.8% | 55.5% | -0.6% | 77 | 36%–58% | as usual |
| 3 months | 44.7% | 61.2% | 1.7% | 47 | 31%–59% | a real difference |
| 1 year | 50.0% | 62.2% | 24.1% | 28 | 33%–67% | as usual |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 165 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.256 vs 0.241 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.