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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 33.98 (-30.5%) | 53.46 (+9.3%) | 68.98 (+41.0%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 37.84 (-22.6%) | 48.92 (+0.0%) | 63.24 (+29.3%) |
| Analysts’ targets | 48.48 (-0.9%) | 63.69 (+30.2%) | 78.9 (+61.3%) |
History since 2000; now 48.92. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: above SMA200 · SMA50 > SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 56.6% | 54.8% | 0.7% | 175 | 49%–64% | as usual |
| 3 months | 60.9% | 59.0% | 2.6% | 64 | 49%–72% | as usual |
| 1 year | 61.1% | 56.0% | 8.9% | 18 | 39%–80% | weak signal (few cases) |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 82 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.247 vs 0.239 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.