Loading…
Loading…
A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 411.63 (-17.0%) | 547.76 (+10.5%) | 704.89 (+42.2%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 312.88 (-36.9%) | 495.69 (+0.0%) | 785.3 (+58.4%) |
History since 2008; now 495.69. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: above SMA200 · SMA50 > SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 54.5% | 58.1% | 0.2% | 134 | 46%–63% | as usual |
| 3 months | 59.2% | 61.4% | 1.7% | 49 | 45%–72% | as usual |
| 1 year | 57.1% | 70.6% | 7.2% | 14 | 33%–79% | weak signal (few cases) |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 53 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.251 vs 0.243 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.