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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 211.07 (-18.3%) | 294.29 (+14.0%) | 360.76 (+39.7%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 136.43 (-47.2%) | 258.24 (+0.0%) | 488.81 (+89.3%) |
| Analysts’ targets | 163 (-36.9%) | 229.74 (-11.0%) | 300 (+16.2%) |
History since 2001; now 258.24. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: above SMA200 · SMA50 > SMA200 · RSI overbought
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 46.7% | 60.4% | -0.5% | 60 | 35%–59% | a real difference |
| 3 months | 59.0% | 64.9% | 1.7% | 39 | 43%–73% | as usual |
| 1 year | 68.8% | 66.7% | 9.1% | 16 | 44%–86% | weak signal (few cases) |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 80 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.247 vs 0.248 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.