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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 31.94 (-17.4%) | 42.99 (+11.3%) | 51.74 (+33.9%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 26.89 (-30.4%) | 38.64 (+0.0%) | 55.52 (+43.7%) |
History since 2011; now 38.64. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: below SMA200 · SMA50 < SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 53.4% | 54.5% | 1.3% | 58 | 41%–66% | as usual |
| 3 months | 54.5% | 60.3% | 3.0% | 22 | 35%–73% | as usual |
| 1 year | 62.5% | 71.4% | 12.5% | 8 | 31%–86% | weak signal (few cases) |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 42 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.253 vs 0.247 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.